RESEARCH NOTE 02  ·  3 NOVEMBER 2026 ← The Florida Institute

TheFlorida Institute

Report 02 · Ballot measures & campaign finance · Orange County

The referendum that lost, and the $1.69 million raised to pass it

In November 2022 Orange County asked its voters for a penny on the sales tax — roughly $600 million a year for twenty years. A political committee raised $1.69 million to persuade them. A quarter of the large money came from engineering and construction firms. Voters rejected it, 58.5% to 41.5%.

Every number in this report comes from a filing that Florida law required someone to make. We downloaded the Orange County Supervisor of Elections' complete campaign-finance exports — 81,165 contributions and 39,507 expenditures covering 373 candidates and committees across 54 offices — and read them together.

Orange County is Florida's fifth-largest county and its most-visited. Its politics is funded differently from Lee County's, which we mapped in Report 01: more individual money, a Democratic rather than Republican centre of gravity, and far less of the state-party pipeline that dominates the south-west coast. The structural pattern that repeats is not partisan. It is concentration.

The scale

Orange County campaign finance, 2014–2026, as filed
Contributions$31,248,38981,165 gifts
Expenditures$29,543,43739,507 payments
Refunds (never netted into gifts)−$123,044309
Candidates and committees373—
Distinct offices54—
Distinct donors (after merging)37,078—
Distinct payees (after merging)9,185—

Orange County Supervisor of Elections campaign-finance database (VoterFocus), complete export for 1 January 2014 to 29 October 2026.

Unlike Lee County — where the top twenty-five donors were all political committees — Orange's money is substantially retail. Nearly half of it arrives from individuals, and 67% of the total comes in gifts of $1,000 or less.

Where the money comes from
Donor typeTotalShare
Individual$14,022,57444.9%
Business$8,956,89728.7%
Unspecified in filing$5,079,24216.3%
Committee$2,399,5647.7%
Political party$708,3072.3%
Other$81,8060.3%

But 185 gifts — two-tenths of one percent of all contributions — account for $7,098,038, or 22.7% of the money. Concentration in Orange County is not in who gives. It is in who gives large, and where that money lands.

The referendum committee

On 8 November 2022, Orange County voters decided a Charter County and Regional Transportation Sales Tax: one additional cent on the sales tax for twenty years, estimated by the county at roughly $600 million a year. Mayor Jerry Demings had campaigned for it since 2019. Commissioners placed it on the ballot.

A political committee called Moving Orange County Forward existed to pass it. It raised $1,693,762 in 160 contributions between 4 June and 22 November 2022, and spent $1,292,079. It filed nothing before that window and nothing after it.

44 gifts of $10,000 or more supplied $1,386,149 — 82% of everything the committee raised.
Moving Orange County Forward — donors by sector
SectorGivenShareDonors
Business association / civic$438,72225.9%3
Unclassified / individual$332,75119.6%94
Theme park, hotel and sports$313,78918.5%9
Engineering and construction$220,00013.0%11
Political committee$213,50012.6%2
Law and lobbying firm$95,0005.6%8
Labour union$60,0003.5%2
Transit operator$20,0001.2%1

Sector assignment is ours, applied by explicit name rule and published so it can be checked. The single largest donor was the Orlando Economic Partnership at $363,722 across 20 gifts.

The firms that build what the tax would buy

Eleven engineering and infrastructure firms contributed $220,000 to the campaign for a tax whose proceeds were designated for transportation construction. These are the firms that bid on that category of work.

Engineering and construction donors to the referendum committee
FirmGiven
HDR$50,000
WSP USA$30,000
AECOM Technology$30,000
American Council of Engineering Companies$30,000
HNTB$25,000
Jacobs$20,000
Vanasse Hangen Brustlin$10,000
Herzog Contracting$10,000
DRMP$5,000
GAI Consultants$5,000
Kimley-Horn$5,000

This is lawful and was disclosed. A firm that stands to bid on work funded by a ballot measure has an evident commercial interest in its passage, and Florida law permits it to spend money saying so. The disclosure requirement exists precisely so that voters can weigh that interest — which requires someone to read the filings.

Five of those eleven firms also gave directly to sitting county officials — modestly. Jacobs gave $4,000 across five campaigns; WSP USA $3,000 across three, including the Mayor who championed the tax. The amounts are small. The overlap is the point: the same firms fund both the measure and the officials who place measures on the ballot.

  Engineering firms ($220,000)  ─┐
  Theme parks, hotels ($313,789) ├─►  MOVING ORANGE COUNTY FORWARD
  Civic associations ($438,722) ─┤      $1,693,762 raised
  Law and lobbying ($95,000)    ─┘      $1,292,079 spent
                                              │
                                              ▼
                              1% transportation sales tax
                              ~$600,000,000 per year, 20 years
                                              │
                                              ▼
                               8 Nov 2022 — REJECTED 58.5% / 41.5%
Committee receipts and the measure they supported. The committee filed no activity outside the 2022 cycle.

The money arrived late and fast. Two-thirds of it — $1,057,558 — landed in October and November 2022, the final five weeks.

One consultant, nineteen offices

Lee County's most concentrated position was a single consulting firm that was also campaign treasurer and registered lobbyist. Orange County has a structurally similar actor, without the treasurer role.

Millennium Consulting received $2,548,446 across 250 payments from 30 campaigns spanning 19 distinct offices. That is 8.6% of every dollar spent by every campaign in the county over twelve years, and 2.5 times the next-largest vendor.

Top campaign vendors, spelling variants merged
VendorPaidCampaignsOffices
Millennium Consulting$2,548,4463019
Resonance Campaigns$1,000,70776
Arrowhead Promotional & Fulfilment$655,72211
Counterpoint Messaging$622,90022
Action Mail Services$597,9083524
Florida Democratic Party$512,1492715
MDW Communications$475,7331816
In Touch Strategies$438,1462615

Millennium Consulting is the single largest vendor in seven separate seats, including the Sheriff, the Clerk of the Courts, four County Commission districts and a School Board district. Its clients span both the county's partisan camps.

A note on counting

This firm's name is spelled eleven different ways across the filings — Millennium, Millenium, Millinnium, Millennium Consuting, Consulting Millennium, and others. Counting only the most common spelling gives $1,925,010 and understates the firm's position by 36%. We merged variants by token signature and character similarity, keeping the most frequently filed spelling as canonical. That method can over-merge, so this figure is an upper bound. It is also a demonstration of why aggregate campaign-finance numbers taken straight from a public portal are routinely too low.

The tourism bloc

Orange County's economy runs on theme parks, hotels and the convention trade. That shows up in the filings as a coherent, cross-party giving bloc: $1,066,106 from 110 entities across 788 gifts, reaching 80 campaigns and 25 offices.

Corporate families, aggregated
FamilyGivenCampaignsEntities
Universal / Comcast$276,9064225
Disney$276,0894024
Rosen Hotels$241,7284542
Central Florida Hotel & Lodging Assn.$135,2505516
Orlando Magic / DeVos$61,350291
SeaWorld$49,500194

Family assignment is by explicit name rule, published so it can be checked. "Entities" counts the distinct filed names grouped into each family — Rosen's 42 reflect individually-named hotel properties.

The pattern worth noting is breadth, not size. The Central Florida Hotel & Lodging Association gave $135,250 but reached 55 campaigns — more than any other donor in the county. Rosen Hotels gave through 42 separately-named properties. Individually each gift is small and unremarkable; in aggregate the lodging industry is present in most races on most ballots.

Where the bloc concentrates is the committee layer. It supplied $318,001 to committees and ECOs — 15% of all committee money — against 3–6% of any individual commission district.

The seats

Orange County's money is unevenly distributed in the way most county politics is, but the extremes are wide.

Seat-level totals and the spread between best- and worst-funded filer
OfficeTotalFilersTop-to-bottom
County Mayor$3,772,4691239,916:1
Commission District 3$2,032,39117799:1
Commission District 2$1,541,172172,678:1
Sheriff$1,539,770163,870:1
Commission District 5$1,449,306145,133:1
Clerk of the Courts$1,425,51110—
Property Appraiser$1,322,4741017,828:1
Commission District 1$1,143,9891014,941:1

Totals aggregate every filer who reported in that office across the window, including multiple cycles and, in several cases, the same person filing under name variants. Ratios compare the single best-funded filer to the worst-funded, and are a measure of spread, not of any one election.

The committee layer absorbs $4,537,500 — 14.5% of all money in the county — across thirteen committees and party accounts. The largest single account in Orange County is not a candidate at all. It is the Orange County Democratic Executive Committee, at $2,066,753 across 13,171 contributions.

Who funds whom, together

Shared-donor analysis shows the county's officials are not funded by separate constituencies. The Mayor and the District 3 Commissioner share 258 donors. The Mayor and the Clerk of the Courts share 166. The Mayor and the Property Appraiser share 141.

Across the whole dataset, 1,107 donors give both to a committee and directly to candidates — the pattern that lets a single interest support an officeholder, a party account and a ballot measure in the same cycle, each within its own lawful limit.

What we did not find

  • No criminal referral, indictment, charge or conviction involving anyone named.
  • No Commission on Ethics finding of probable cause.
  • No undisclosed contribution — everything here was filed as required.
  • No evidence of a quid pro quo, and no agreement to exchange anything of value for official action.
  • No evidence that any contract was awarded improperly, and no finding about any procurement.
  • No election irregularity of any kind. The 2022 referendum failed; the voters decided it.

The finding

When a county asks its voters to approve $600 million a year of construction, the firms that build the work are entitled to fund the campaign — and in Orange County they did, lawfully and on the record. Nobody is required to tell voters that. The filings are public; reading them is not automatic.

The second finding is narrower and applies to anyone who uses this data: aggregate totals taken straight from the county's portal are systematically too low, because the same vendors and donors are filed under many spellings. One firm's true position was understated by more than a third. Any analysis that skips reconciliation will understate concentration everywhere.

Limits of this analysis

Entity merging is deliberately conservative but can still over-merge; all concentration figures are upper bounds. 2,539 rows are marked as amendments in the source data and may restate earlier filings. 18 contribution rows carry no donor name. Sector and corporate-family assignments are ours, applied by published rule, and reasonable people could draw the boundaries differently. This dataset covers county filings only; candidates for multi-county office file with the state, and that layer is not merged in here. Name variants mean a single person may appear as several filers, so seat totals aggregate cycles rather than describing one election.

Corrections and challenges to any figure in this report: corrections@florida.institute. We publish corrections in full.

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